More about Trend Analysis
The purpose of trend analysis is to spot a prevalent trend within a user group and/or to determine how a trend developed/would develop over time. This exercise helps identify new opportunities and ideas for concepts or products. Therefore, it is a good idea to conduct trend analysis during the early stage of the design phase.
Trend analysis as a design research methodology involves collecting data about users as well as from users. This data is then analyzed to determine a trend and is then analyzed further to determine its development over time.
However, there are times when a researcher is required to analyze an existing trend within a user group. In such cases, specific data is collected from the user groups by monitoring the trend carefully and closely to determine the cause of the trend. Determining the cause of the trend is more difficult than determining the trend. Again, certain factors such as time of day, season, geographic location, etc. must be affecting the trend and such factors must, therefore, be recorded while monitoring the trend.
Types of Trend Analysis
There are three types of trend analysis methods – geographic, temporal and intuitive.
| Method | Purpose | Advantages | Disadvantages |
| Geographic | To analyze the trend within or across user groups defined by their geographic location. | - Easy and reliable.
- Helpful in figuring our commonalities and differences between user groups belonging to the same as well as different geographies.
| - The analysis is limited to geography.
- May be influenced by factors such as culture, etc. specific to the user groups of the geography.
|
| Temporal | To analyze the trend within or across user groups defined by specific time period(s) or change over time. | - Helpful in figuring relationships between user groups from different generations.
- Helpful in predicting future events based on those of the past.
| - Historical data may not be an accurate representation of trends.
- The trend may not be replicable.
|
| Intuitive | To analyze the trend within or across user groups based on some logical explanation, behavioral patterns or other elements perceived by a futurist. | Helpful when making predictions not backed by large amounts of statistical data. | - Over reliance on knowledge and logic of futurists/researchers.
- Prone to researcher bias.
- Most difficult form of trend analysis.
- Not exacting
|
Advantages of Trend Analysis
1. Large sample sizes
The availability of data and online tools available to handle large amounts of data allow for sampling of data quickly and applying the results to a variety of situations.
2. Verifiable
The results of trend analysis are easily verifiable.
3. Accurate
In case of statistical data, the analysis is very close to accurate. The use of numbers makes the analysis more exacting.
4. Replicable
A trend analysis can be replicated, verified, altered and adjusted when necessary.
Disadvantages of Trend Analysis
1. Distortions
Historical data may not be an accurate representation of a trend. A random event or pattern could distort overall findings and render incorrect result for an analysis.
2. Determining cause
It is very difficult to determine the cause of a trend.
3. Large sample sizes
For accurately and reliably analyzing a trend, large amount of data needs to be collected. This is both a time-consuming and costly affair.
4. Errors
A single error in recording a trend will add an error in the analysis rendering the results meaningless.
Think Design's recommendation
With the advent of big data and recent advancements in the study of unstructured data, it is easier than ever to spot trends… However, it may not be all that easy! A Design researcher would want to understand unmet needs or untapped opportunities that are informed by Trend Analysis and this is where it tends to become complex.
If our objective from Trend Analysis is to spot something that can become a potential opportunity, it takes more than an isolated study to arrive at it. This is because movements themselves are so complex that there are several factors that may have influenced them. As a general practice, it may be a good idea to also conduct a PESTEL study along with Trend Analysis to gain access to the influencing factors. PESTEL study is a study of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal macro-economic factors that could have impacted a business, an organization or a society. It is important for researchers to understand this in order to get a contextual know-how of what the situation would have been when the trend occurred and that will inform if the trend is something that is a long-term opportunity or an isolated event.
FAQs
Trend analysis is a technique used to examine and predict movements of an item based on current and historical data. You can use trend analysis to improve your business using trend data to inform your decision-making.
What do you mean by trend analysis? ›
Trend analysis is defined as a statistical and analytical technique used to evaluate and identify patterns, trends, or changes in data over time. It involves the examination of historical data to uncover insights into the direction or tendencies of a particular phenomenon.
What are the three types of trend analysis? ›
There are three types of trend analysis methods – geographic, temporal and intuitive. To analyze the trend within or across user groups defined by their geographic location. Easy and reliable.
What are the methods of trend analysis? ›
Trend analysis is a quantitive review of what happens over a period of time. It entails the collection of data from multiple time periods and plotting the information on a line graph for further analysis. There are three types of trend analysis: geographic, temporal, and intuitive.
What is the formula for trend analysis? ›
Calculate the amount of the increase/(decrease) for the period by subtracting the earlier year from the later year. If the difference is negative, the change is a decrease and if the difference is positive, it is an increase. Divide the change by the earlier year's balance. The result is the percentage change.
What is the main objective of trend analysis? ›
The core objectives of industry/market trend analysis are to identify patterns, predict future market movements, make informed investment decisions, and manage risks effectively.
What are three examples of trends? ›
Fidget spinners, parachute pants, Gangnam Style. Those are fads. Social media, recreational marijuana, artificial intelligence. Those are trends.
Which tool is best for trend analysis? ›
What are the best trend tracking tools?
- Exploding Topics. Exploding Topics is a trend tracking platform that helps companies identify major emerging trends months or years before they take off. ...
- Determ. ...
- SparkToro. ...
- Glimpse. ...
- Mangools KWFinder. ...
- BuzzSumo.
Time series data can exhibit various patterns and behaviors, including: Trends: These are long-term movements in data, indicating a consistent upward or downward direction. For example, monthly sales data for a retail store may exhibit an upward trend if sales are gradually increasing over several years.
How do you identify trends in data? ›
How to Identify Patterns, Trends, and Relationships in Data?
- Step 1: Define Goals. ...
- Step 2: Choose Data Sources and Types. ...
- Step 3: Visualise the Data. ...
- Step 4: Apply Analytical Methods. ...
- Step 5: Interpret and Communicate with the Method.
Display the trend series by using a trendline in a chart
- On your chart, click the data series to which you want to add a trendline or moving average.
- On the Chart Design tab, click Add Chart Element, and point to Trendline. ...
- Click the kind of trendline or moving average that you want to use.
- Click OK.
Trend lines are drawn above the price in a downtrend. A straight line must connect two lows in an uptrend. A straight line must connect two highs in a downtrend. At least three highs or lows should connect the trend line to make it valid.
What is a trend in data analysis? ›
A trend in data analysis describes the general change in a variable with time. An example of a trend is the gradual increase in the Earth's average temperature with time due to climate change.
How do you read a trend analysis? ›
Examine the trend analysis plot to determine whether your model fits your data. If the fits closely follow the actual data, the model fits your data. Ideally, the data points should fall randomly around the fitted line. If the model fits the data, you can perform Double Exponential Smoothing and compare the two models.
What do you mean by trend in statistics? ›
A trend is a pattern found in time series datasets; it is used to describe if the data is showing an upward or downward movement for part or all of the time series. Please note that the definitions in our statistics encyclopedia are simplified explanations of terms.
