China - national debt 2019-2029 | Statista (2024)

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China - national debt 2019-2029 | Statista? ›

National debt of China 2029

The Congressional Budget Office's January 2020 projections had gross federal debt eclipsing $34 trillion in fiscal year 2029.

If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries. All values are adjusted to 2023 dollars. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

The $34 trillion gross federal debt includes debt held by the public as well as debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts.

How bad is it? China's debt is more than 250 percent of GDP, higher than the United States. It remains lower than Japan, the world's most indebted leading economy, but some experts say the concern is that China's debt has surged at the sort of pace that usually leads to a financial bust and economic slump.

United States. The United States boasts both the world's biggest national debt in terms of dollar amount and its largest economy, which resolves to a debt-to GDP ratio of approximately 128.13%.

Among other countries, Japan and China have continued to be the top owners of US debt during the last two decades. Since the dollar is a strong currency that is accepted globally, holding a substantial amount of US debt can be beneficial.

The United States supported China's entrance into the World Trade Organization at the turn of the millennium, which led to an export boom of Chinese goods into the U.S. China ended up parking much of its sales in U.S. Treasurys, CNN reported, because of their perceived safety as an investment.

Foreign holders of United States treasury debt

Of the total held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 797.7 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.

Why is China dumping US treasuries? ›

Worries over security and a further delay to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have depleted Beijing's appetite for US Treasury bills, and its position as the second-largest foreign holder of the financial instruments could be taken by the UK in coming months, analysts warned.

Many people believe that much of the U.S. national debt is owed to foreign countries like China and Japan, but the truth is that most of it is owed to Social Security and pension funds right here in the U.S. This means that U.S. citizens own most of the national debt.

[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).

At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023. *For the U.S. and Canada, gross debt levels were adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees' defined-benefit pension plans.

The Federal Budget

Debt held by the public, boosted by the large deficits, reaches its highest level ever in 2029 (measured as a percentage of GDP) and then continues to grow, reaching 166 percent of GDP in 2054 and remaining on track to increase thereafter.

The budget office projected that the annual deficit will grow to $2.6 trillion in 2034 from $1.6 trillion this year, adding $18.9 trillion to the national debt during the decade. By then, the debt is projected to surpass $54 trillion.