What is an example of a bear trap in the stock market?
Real-World Example
A bear trap is a reversal against a bearish move that may force traders to abandon their short positions in the face of rising losses. It's called a trap because it often catches traders off-guard, and it comes on the back of a decline in the market that looks likely to continue.
Bear markets can last from a few weeks to several years. The first and most famous bear market was The Great Depression. The dot com bubble in 2000 and the housing crisis of 2007β2008 are other examples.
Bear markets occur when prices in a market decline by more than 20%, often accompanied by negative investor sentiment and a weakening economy. Bear markets can be cyclical or longer-term. The former lasts for several weeks or a couple of months and the latter can last for several years or even decades.
A bear trap occurs in a declining market when there is a temporary pause or reversal in price movements that lead some traders to think that bullish conditions will emerge or the downward trend may end, prompting them to buy stocks or assets with hopes of profiting from any expected upward movement.
A bull trap occurs when a trader believes the market is trending upwards, but the price suddenly drops, while a bear trap occurs when a trader believes the market is trending downwards, but the price suddenly rises. Options contracts allow traders to bet on the price movement of an underlying asset.
Identifying a bear trap in the chart is quite simple. It occurs close to the support line. There is a downtrend accompanied by a high volume trade. A trap is confirmed when the trend reserves within five candlesticks, forming above the support line and the trend rapidly crosses the resistance level.
Share prices plummeted, sparking a bear market, and there was a general feeling that the conglomerates were to blame for the market woes.
Over the past 50 years, there have been five bear markets, each with a duration of one month to just over two years. The current bear market started in early 2022, so we're nearing the two-year mark. The bull markets during this period have lasted from 2.5 years to almost 13 years, with three lasting over 10 years.
Watch for 20%: Market cycles are measured from peak to trough, so a stock index officially reaches bear territory when the closing price drops at least 20% from its most recent high (whereas a correction is a drop of 10%-19.9%).
Should I sell my stocks in a bear market?
Invest in stocks that you want to own for the long run, and don't sell them simply because their prices went down in a bear market. Focus on quality: When bear markets hit, it's true that companies often go out of business.
When you jump into a plunging market, you must be willing to embrace the likelihood of further losses before you may see potentially greater returns when the bear finally yields to the bull. It's a hard pill to swallow, and many investors just can't do it. As a result, they can miss out on the opportunity to buy low.
Example of a Bear Trap
Many investors sold their Bitcoin at this point, fearing that the market would continue to decline. However, Bitcoin's price rebounded to nearly $40,000 just a few weeks later, trapping those who sold out of the market and missing out on potential profits.
Here are some examples of possible value traps: An industrial company whose stock has been trading at 10x earnings for the past six months, compared to its trailing five-year average of 15x.
A bear trap can easily cut through muscle and bone of a child and amputate a limb. The results may be similar for an adult and at the very least, cause a devastating wound that could bring on shock and eventual death if immediate help isn't available.
The idea behind calling this type of trading pattern a bear trap is that bearish investors are sitting and waiting for prices to fall so they can jump in and profit from short positions, but instead they are trapped when prices reverse course and head higher.
Bears may be trapped only with the use of cable traps (foothold cable restraint) or cage-type live traps.
A bear market is defined by a prolonged drop in investment prices β generally, a bear market happens when a broad market index falls by 20% or more from its most recent high. The reverse of a bear market is a bull market, characterized by gains of 20% or more.
Bear markets are defined as sustained periods of downward trending stock prices, often triggered by a 20% decline from near-term highs. Bear markets are often accompanied by an economic recession and high unemployment. But bear markets can also be great buying opportunities while prices are depressed.
to accept, tolerate, or endure something, especially something unpleasant: The strain must have been enormous but she bore it well. Tell me now! I can't bear the suspense!
Should I pull my money out of the stock market now?
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.
Here are two key technical indicators used to recognize bear markets: Moving Averages: Moving averages are widely used in technical analysis to smoothen price data and identify trends. The 200-day moving average is a common indicator used to determine the long-term trend of a stock or market index.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
There are a few ways to determine the bottom of a market. The two most important are price and volume. When there are few sellers in the market for a stock, it has probably bottomed out. Additionally, if the average daily trading volume of a stock has dropped significantly, it has most likely bottomed out.
References
- https://www.citizensbank.com/learning/bull-market-vs-bear-market.aspx
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversal.asp
- https://www.financialsamurai.com/why-its-better-to-retire-in-a-bear-market-than-in-a-bull-market/
- https://www.motilaloswal.com/blog-details/what-does-gap-up-and-gap-down-state-in-market/1933
- https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/are-we-in-a-bull-market-2024
- https://www.tradingview.com/support/solutions/43000717955-bull-bear-power/
- https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/how-to-invest-bear-market
- https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/stock-market-rallies--what-you-need-to-know-200811
- https://www.thinkmarkets.com/en/learn-to-trade/indicators-and-patterns/bearish-patterns/bear-pennant-pattern/
- https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/bear-market
- https://www.fisdom.com/predict-stock-price-for-the-next-day/
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/stock-market-forecast-2024/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/070115/4-ways-survive-and-prosper-bear-market.asp
- https://www.peta.org/features/steel-jaw-trap-fur-cruelty/
- https://www.oreilly.com/library/view/trading-price-action/9781118172308/OEBPS/9781118172308_epub_ch_07.htm
- https://riverplacecapital.com/learning-library/investing-101/guide-to-identifying-a-new-bull-market/
- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/definition/bearish-trend
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bulltrap.asp
- https://tradenation.com/articles/what-is-a-bear-trap/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/062315/using-bullish-candlestick-patterns-buy-stocks.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/090115/use-market-volume-data-determine-bottom.asp
- https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/bear-vs-bull-market
- https://www.investopedia.com/market-milestones-as-the-bull-market-turns-10-4588903
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flag.asp
- https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/types-of-stocks/growth-stocks/
- https://www.icicidirect.com/ilearn/technical-analysis/articles/3-bullish-technical-trends-to-watch-out-for
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/how-to-invest-during-a-bear-market
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/02/121602.asp
- https://www.tradingview.com/education/bearishflag/
- https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/600938/bull-markets-10-things-you-must-know
- https://www.maine.gov/ifw/hunting-trapping/trapping/laws-rules/bear.html
- https://altfins.com/knowledge-base/bull-bear-power/
- https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en/trading-guides/bull-traps
- https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/what-is-a-bull-market
- https://www.newtonanalytics.com/bear-market-probability.php?view=model
- https://www.creditkarma.com/investments/i/bear-market-investing-strategies
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/this-stock-market-indicator-has-been-100-accurate-since-1957.-it-signals-a-big-move-in-the
- https://money.cnn.com/interactive/investing/best-performing-global-markets/
- https://titanfx.com/news/a-comprehensive-guide-to-bears-and-bulls-power-indicator
- https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/example/english/bear-market
- https://www.fool.com/terms/b/bear-market/
- https://www.bankrate.com/investing/what-is-a-bull-market/
- https://bullishbears.com/bear-flag-patterns/
- https://kids.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=23210
- https://samuraitradingacademy.com/7-best-price-action-patterns/
- https://www.disruptionbanking.com/2024/02/15/paypal-a-value-trap-or-hidden-gem/
- https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/best-performing-stocks-of-the-year
- https://fastercapital.com/content/Exploring-Beartraps--A-Comprehensive-Guide.html
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/bull-market-history/
- https://speedtrader.com/how-to-trade-flag-patterns/
- https://www.motilaloswal.com/blog-details/how-to-analyse-stock-market-trends/1067
- https://www.fool.com/terms/b/bull-market/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuetrap.asp
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bear-trap-in-trading:-explanation-for-beginners
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/history-repeats-itself-expect-stock-140000881.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/020515/what-are-safest-investments-during-bear-market.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/elderray.asp
- https://tradeciety.com/bull-flag-and-bear-flag-trading-explained
- https://www.tokenmetrics.com/blog/bear-trap
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-predictions-for-the-stock-market-in-2024-and-which-stocks-will-soar-the-most-if-theyre
- https://realtrading.com/trading-blog/do-you-fall-these-day-trading-traps/
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/bull-market
- https://www.smallcase.com/learn/bear-market/
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/investduringbearmarket.asp
- https://www.icicidirect.com/ilearn/technical-analysis/articles/3-technical-indicators-for-the-bearish-market
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-just-flashed-bullish-020701595.html
- https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/bear
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-you-shouldnt-fear-bear-market-falling-stock-adam-rideout
- https://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/bear-flag
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/081313/ways-gauge-market-open-direction.asp
- https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/what-is-a-bear-trap-and-how-does-it-work--230605
- https://ethis.co/blog/top-4-money-mistakes-to-avoid-in-a-bear-market/
- https://www.thinkmarkets.com/en/learn-to-trade/indicators-and-patterns/bearish-patterns/bear-flag-pattern/
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/bull-market-confirmed-what-happens-next-water-street-wealth-61o3e?trk=organization_guest_main-feed-card_feed-article-content
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stock-price-predictions-using-deep-learning-muhammad-nouman
- https://www.investopedia.com/a-history-of-bear-markets-4582652
- https://www.techopedia.com/investing/most-accurate-stock-predictors
- https://www.techopedia.com/investing/stock-prediction-software
- https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/110513143545861
- https://tradebrains.in/top-bullish-indicators/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquiditytrap.asp
- https://www.angelone.in/knowledge-center/online-share-trading/bear-trap
- https://laist.com/shows/take-two/monarch-the-sad-amazing-story-of-the-bear-on-californias-state-flag
- https://www.wordhippo.com/what-is/another-word-for/beartrap.html
- https://apnews.com/buyline-personal-finance/article/what-to-do-when-the-stock-market-crashes
- https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/01/gold-prices-hit-all-time-high-what-to-know-before-investing.html
- https://blueberrymarkets.com/learn/advanced/bear-and-bull-power-indicators/
- https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/new-bull-market-2024
- https://www.cfainstitute.org/en/membership/professional-development/refresher-readings/firm-market-structures
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4492418-bear-trap
- https://www.warriortrading.com/bull-flag-trading/
- https://centerpointsecurities.com/what-is-a-bear-trap/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/profit-in-bear-bull-markets.asp
- https://www.thinkmarkets.com/en/learn-to-trade/indicators-and-patterns/bullish-patterns/bull-flag-pattern/
- https://builtin.com/machine-learning/machine-learning-stock-prediction
- https://www.bankrate.com/investing/what-it-means-bullish-bearish/
- https://www.financestrategists.com/wealth-management/fundamental-vs-technical-analysis/bull-traps/
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/bull-bear-market-names/
- https://www.flickr.com/photos/pomdydotcom/25110947375
- https://www.ig.com/en/thematic-basket/bear-markets
- https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/basics/crashes/
- https://www.quora.com/How-much-damage-does-a-bear-trap-do-to-a-human
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/09/cash-is-king.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp
- https://www.nps.gov/goga/learn/historyculture/bear-flag-revolt.htm
- https://www.stash.com/learn/how-long-do-bear-markets-last/
- https://www.forex.com/en/learn-trading/bullish-and-bearish-flags/
- https://www.litefinance.org/blog/for-beginners/best-technical-indicators/bulls-and-bears-power-indicators/
- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/19/business/stocks-bull-market.html
- https://changelly.com/blog/bear-flag-pattern/
- https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/04/04/bear-market-recoveries-todays-market-q1-2024
- https://www.samco.in/knowledge-center/articles/bull-bear-traps-in-options-trading/
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/10/14/are-we-still-in-a-bear-market-heres-why-it-doesnt/
- https://time.com/personal-finance/article/bear-vs-bull-market/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/062714/100-minus-your-age-outdated.asp
- https://www.dailyfx.com/education/understanding-the-stock-market/bull-or-bear-market.html
- https://blueberrymarkets.com/learn/intermediate/bullish-and-bearish-flags/
- https://neptune.ai/blog/predicting-stock-prices-using-machine-learning