Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2024)

Who is going to buy all this US debt? (1)

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Rod Khleif Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2)

Rod Khleif

Master Multi-Family Real Estate, Create Multi-Generational Wealth & Freedom, Invest Passively or Actively | 1-on-1 Expert Coach | Multifamily & Apartment Investing | Real Estate Investing | #1 Best-Selling Author

Published Jan 22, 2024

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Bloomberg recently estimated that interest expense on the United States' $33T debt just crossed $1T on an annualized basis. Federal receipts are $4.4T, which means almost a quarter of all revenue is consumed by interest. Interest expense has doubled over the past two years and will probably move higher with 2024 auction activity!

"Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt." - Ben Franklin

We certainly have come a long way from the frugal beginnings of the country. The chart below shows how rapidly and seemingly out of control the US debt has skyrocketed to around $100K for every person in the country.

Who is going to buy all this US debt? (3)

In 2024, 33% of our outstanding public debt matures ($7.6T) and must be reissued in a higher rate environment. On top of this $7.6T, the federal deficit could hit $2.0T in 2024, which means the Treasury would have to issue nearly $10T of new debt. The question is: where is this money going to come from and what impact will this have on interest rates and taxes?

Of the $33T of debt, roughly 78% is owned by the public (70% US vs 30% International). The major US public owners include the FED ($6T, but they are no longer buyers), mutual funds, banks, states, pension funds and insurance companies. The international buying appetite has been falling over the past 10 years (dropping from 40% to the current 30%). The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world. After the recent weak treasury auction, US government officials warned that they are seeing waning demand from international buyers. China has been a net seller and Japan seems tapped out. The strong dollar is also working against the Treasury. The US dollar strength versus other currencies makes it attractive for international owners to sell US debt and use the dollars to buy their own currency, boosting the value.

The remaining debt (22%) is owned by inter-government agencies including Social Security and Medicare. If you believe that Social Security and Medicare are bleeding off their surplus, then logically they will be net sellers over time as they use reserves to pay recipients.

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The auctions will come down to simple supply and demand. We know the supply is increasing and the demand is falling, which is bad for pricing. If the rates on Treasuries are attractive (higher) relative to other options, then we should be able to reissue the debt. In the most recent auction, the FED had to pivot to shorter term notes to entice buyers. Today, the 6-month treasury note yields 5.25% versus 4.0% for the 10-year, so clearly interest costs will increase in the short term if the US government is forced to issue short-term debt to attract buyers. If we don't get our deficits under control, the situation will only grow worse.

There is evidence, however, that higher interest rates on US debt are attracting new buyers. Two European money managers, Rathbones and Pictet, both recently announced an increase in their holdings of US Treasuries due to the attractive rates. Currently the US 10-year (4.0%) is higher than in the UK (3.8%), Spain (3.2%), Germany (2.2%) and Switzerland (0.8%), so it seems attractive relative to these options.

We are not sure how this will all shake out, but at some point, something has to give because the trajectory we are on is unsustainable. At the end of the day, someone will have to pay for the sins of the past. Taxes need to move higher, and spending needs to be cut; both moves would hurt the economy. A weakening economy would have a ripple effect across all businesses and commercial real estate. We do not think the tax and financing benefits awarded to multi-family would be impacted during the "balance the budget phase" that is coming, due to the core nature of our product. However, the cloudy outlook reinforces our conservative thinking when evaluating deals.

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Real Estate Market Update Who is going to buy all this US debt? (7)

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Ilan Brodsky

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3mo

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great job rod!!!

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MOMINUL ISLAM

Digital Marketer | SEO Service Provider | YouTube SEO Expert | Social Media Marketing Manager | Google and Facebook Ads Service Provider | B2B Lead Generation. A Digital Marketing Specialist at Outsourcing BD Institute.

3mo

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Great

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Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2024)

FAQs

Who is buying U.S. debt now? ›

The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world.

Who owns over 70% of the U.S. debt? ›

Who owns the most U.S. debt? Around 70 percent of U.S. debt is held by domestic financial actors and institutions in the United States. U.S. Treasuries represent a convenient, liquid, low-risk store of value.

Is it possible for the US to pay off its debt? ›

It ultimately comes down to the U.S. taxpayers. That means in order to pay it off, or at least make a larger dent in the debt, the federal government would have to raise taxes and cut spending.

Who is most of America's debt to? ›

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries. All values are adjusted to 2023 dollars. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

Who is the biggest buyer of U.S. debt? ›

Top Foreign Owners of US National Debt
  • Japan. $1,098.2. 14.52%
  • China. $769.6. 10.17%
  • United Kingdom. $693. 9.16%
  • Luxembourg. $345.4. 4.57%
  • Cayman Islands. $323.8. 4.28%

Who are the largest buyers of U.S. debt? ›

Foreign holders of United States treasury debt

Of the total held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 797.7 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.

What would happen if China sold all its US Treasuries? ›

If China “dumped” USA treasuries, they would take a serious monetary loss. The price of the treasuries would drop, effective raising the return for those who bought the bonds.

How much does China owe US? ›

The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.

Does any country owe the US money? ›

China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.

What country is not in debt? ›

Singapore is one of Asia's major financial centers. It is also one of the most prosperous countries on the planet. And all this has been achieved without taking on any meaningful public debt. In fact, very much like Norway, Singapore has more assets than debt.

Why does the US owe so much money? ›

The federal government needs to borrow money to pay its bills when its ongoing spending activities and investments cannot be funded by federal revenues alone. Decreases in federal revenue are largely due to either a decrease in tax rates or individuals or corporations making less money.

Why can't the US pay off its debt? ›

Why Is the U.S. Debt So High? Essentially, because the government repeatedly spends more money than it receives in tax revenue. Many point to tax cuts passed by Congress as the major culprit for decreasing this income. Others point to out-of-control, politically-driven spending as the reason.

What would happen if the US paid off its debt? ›

Answer and Explanation:

If the U.S. was to pay off their debt ultimately, there is not much that would happen. Paying off the debt implies that the government will now focus on using the revenue collected primarily from taxes to fund its activities.

Does Russia hold US debt? ›

Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea. China Is America's Biggest Banker. The U.S. debt to China is $1.11 trillion as of May 2019.

Who has the most debt on earth? ›

United States. The United States boasts both the world's biggest national debt in terms of dollar amount and its largest economy, which resolves to a debt-to GDP ratio of approximately 128.13%.

What countries owe the United States money? ›

Top 20 Countries that Owe the US Money
  • Bermuda. Total Debt Held: $77.4 Billion. ...
  • Germany. Total Debt Held: $91.3 Billion. ...
  • Norway. Total Debt Held: $104.4 Billion. ...
  • Korea. Total Debt Held: $105.8 Billion. ...
  • Saudi Arabia. Total Debt Held: $111 Billion. ...
  • France. Total Debt Held: $183.9 Billion. ...
  • Singapore. ...
  • Brazil.
Nov 22, 2023

Is the Fed buying debt? ›

The short answer: the Federal Reserve has indirectly bought the vast majority of debt issued since the crisis began. Whether this is debt monetization or more conventional quantitative easing is up for debate.

Why is China selling US treasuries? ›

Selling Treasurys is a fast way to whip up U.S. dollars, and China will sometimes use extra dollars to go out on the global market and buy up their own currency. That artificially pumps up its value. It's like planting someone at an auction to drive up your prices. That's one idea.

Who are the buyers of the US Treasuries? ›

And, thus, the Treasury needs buyers. At this point, the Fed is no longer a buyer of Treasuries. Pension funds, mutual funds, retail portfolios, institutional portfolios, and an assortment of exchange traded funds have been important domestic buyers.

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