The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global (2024)

Warren Buffet’s first rule of investing is to never lose money; his second is to never forget the first rule. This golden rule is key for long-term capital protection and growth. One oft-used strategy to limit losses in turbulent markets is an allocation to gold. Gold investing is widely regarded as a safe haven during extreme macroeconomic downturns in periods of war, hyperinflation, or major recessions.

But do such allocations to gold really provide the expected protection in practice? And even if so, are there any better ways to mitigate risks? To answer these questions, we revisited the strategic role of gold in investment portfolios and focused on its marginal downside risk reduction benefits relative to bonds and equities.

Our analysis, featured in a new research paper, focuses on annual real returns starting in 1975, when gold became truly tradeable. We took the perspective of a US investor who could strategically invest in equities, bonds, and gold and would care about a wide range of downside risk measures, including downside volatility, loss probability and expected loss.

The key findings of our empirical study are that a modest gold allocation in a traditional mix of equities and bonds reduces the risk of capital losses by around 10% across a wide range of equity-bond allocations. Still, this also reduces the return, leading to a small increase in the return/risk ratio as shown in Figure 1 summarizing the main findings of this study.

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Importantly, however, our simulations show that the downside volatility can be reduced further by adopting a low volatility style in the equity investment and letting this defensive equity allocation replace part of the bond allocation. The portfolio with the lowest downside volatility on a one-year horizon consists of 45% bonds, 45% low-volatility stocks and 10% gold.

Our simulations show that the downside volatility can be reduced further by adopting a low volatility style

As a result, this defensive mix has significantly lower downside risk than a traditional equities/bonds portfolio, with higher returns leading to a large increase in the Sortino ratio. This defensive strategy therefore proves to be an effective way for investors to adhere to Buffet’s golden rule, while still delivering long-term capital growth.

Moreover, additional simulations and robustness checks show that these key findings hold not just for the one-year returns initially considered, but also for a wide range of investment horizons, ranging from one month up to 36 months. While these results are robust when gold futures are used instead of a direct gold investment, adding gold mining stocks is less effective in reducing the downside risk of a low-volatility equity portfolio. Lastly, we document that, while the risk mitigation role of gold is muted in a mean-variance setup, low volatility investing is considered just as relevant as when evaluated through a downside risk lens.

Read the full paper on SSRN

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FAQs

The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global? ›

Warren Buffet's first rule of investing is to never lose money; his second is to never forget the first rule. This golden rule is key for long-term capital protection and growth. One oft-used strategy to limit losses in turbulent markets is an allocation to gold.

What is the golden rule of investment? ›

Keeping your portfolio diversified is important for reducing risk. Having your portfolio in only one or two stocks is unsafe, no matter how well they've performed for you. So experts advise spreading your investments around in a diversified portfolio.

What is Warren Buffett's golden rule? ›

"Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1."- Warren Buffet.

What is the universal rule of investing? ›

A universal rule that most young investors know is diversification, i.e. don't put all of your investing capital into one name. Diversification is a good rule of thumb, but it can also diminish your profits when one of your picks makes a big move while other names don't.

What is the rule number 1 of investing? ›

Warren Buffett once said, “The first rule of an investment is don't lose [money]. And the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule.

What is the golden rule level of investment? ›

The Golden Rule capital stock is the level at which MPK = δ, so that the marginal product of capital equals the depreciation rate. 3. When the economy begins above the Golden Rule level of capital, reaching the Golden Rule level leads to higher consumption at all points in time.

What are Warren Buffett's 5 rules of investing? ›

A: Five rules drawn from Warren Buffett's wisdom for potentially building wealth include investing for the long term, staying informed, maintaining a competitive advantage, focusing on quality, and managing risk.

What did Warren Buffett tell his wife to invest in? ›

In the interview, he said the Berkshire shares would go to philanthropy. Part of the cash would go directly to his wife and part to a trustee. He told the trustee to put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund.

What is the 1% rule of investing? ›

The 1% rule of real estate investing measures the price of an investment property against the gross income it can generate. For a potential investment to pass the 1% rule, its monthly rent must equal at least 1% of the purchase price.

What is the Buffett's two list rule? ›

Buffett presented a three-step exercise to help streamline his focus. The first step was to write down his top 25 career goals. In the second step, Buffett told Flint to identify his top five goals from the list. In the final step, Flint had two lists: the top five goals (List A) and the remaining 20 (List B).

What is the rule #1 of value investing? ›

The key to successful investing is purchasing companies way below their actual value - then capitalizing when the market realizes the mistake.

What is the 70% rule investing? ›

Basically, the rule says real estate investors should pay no more than 70% of a property's after-repair value (ARV) minus the cost of the repairs necessary to renovate the home. The ARV of a property is the amount a home could sell for after flippers renovate it.

What is the 80% rule investing? ›

In investing, the 80-20 rule generally holds that 20% of the holdings in a portfolio are responsible for 80% of the portfolio's growth. On the flip side, 20% of a portfolio's holdings could be responsible for 80% of its losses.

What are the 4 golden rules investing? ›

They are: (1) Use specialist products; (2) Diversify manager research risk; (3) Diversify investment styles; and, (4) Rebalance to asset mix policy. All boringly straightforward and logical.

What are the 5 M's of investing? ›

Therefore, for both funders and founders, focus on these 5 M's in evaluating any successful entrepreneurial investment: (1) Management, (2) Momentum, (3) Model, (4) Motivation and (5) Market. As an active angel investor, I consider these 5 concepts on a regular basis when evaluating entrepreneurs for investments.

What is the 7% loss rule? ›

The 7% stop loss rule is a rule of thumb to place a stop loss order at about 7% or 8% below the buy order for any new position. If the asset price falls by more than 7%, the stop-loss order automatically executes and liquidates the traders' position.

What is the most important rule in investing? ›

Diversification is one of the most fundamental rules of investing and allows you to take a middle road through the extremes of market performance, allowing your investment to grow regularly with smaller fluctuations along the way. Diversification is the most effective means of managing risk.

What does golden rule mean in finance? ›

The Golden Rule states that over the economic cycle, the Government will borrow only to invest and not to fund current spending. In layman's terms this means that on average over the ups and downs of an economic cycle the government should only borrow to pay for investment that benefits future generations.

What is the first best investment rule? ›

Rule 1: Never Lose Money

This might seem like a no-brainer because what investor sets out with the intention of losing their hard-earned cash? But, in fact, events can transpire that can cause an investor to forget this rule.

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