With the Vegas Golden Knights season coming to an end a little earlier than had been hoped, it presents my annual opportunity to look back on the bold prognostications I made back in September and see how clear my crystal ball was. Here is the good, the bad, and the ugly of my early predictions for the 2023-24 NHL season:
1) Vegas Finishes Second in the Pacific Division
In the end, I was right to believe that the Golden Knights would take a step back in their Stanley Cup title defense season – I didn’t go far enough. A second-place finish in the Pacific Division would’ve still netted Vegas home-ice advantage in the playoffs and a more favorable match-up than the top-seeded Dallas Stars. Instead, falling from the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed in 2022-23 to the second wild card spot this season made all the difference. What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas… except for me. Thank you for all the memories, @GoldenKnights.
The Golden Knights weren’t actually that far off, finishing just six points shy of the Pacific’s second-place Edmonton Oilers. However, uneven performances late in the season prevented them from catching the likes of the Oilers and Los Angeles Kings. At the same time, a crushing season-ending loss to the Anaheim Ducks doomed them to a first-round date with the deep, balanced, and physical Stars.
2) Adin Hill Holds Onto the Starter’s Job
Adin Hill started the season in the No. 1 role and finished the same way, but it wasn’t always smooth sailing for the 2023 playoff hero. A lower-body injury in late March cost him seven games. Then, some late-season struggles (he had a .882 save percentage and 3.46 goals against average from February onward) prompted the Vegas coaching staff to start Logan Thompson for Game 1 of the postseason.
Hill would eventually reclaim the net in time for Game 4, stepping up with a .931 SV% and 1.70 GAA over the series’ final three games. A somewhat turbulent season aside, the 28-year-old stands to head into 2024-25 in the now-familiar role of 1A to Thompson’s 1B as both Alberta natives enter into contract seasons.
3) Golden Knights Get Active at Trade Deadline
It’s hard to argue that this was anything other than a home run prediction, as adding Tomas Hertl, Noah Hanifin, and Anthony Mantha certainly qualifies as getting active. Whether it was effective, however, is another question entirely.
Hanifin was stellar for the Golden Knights, finishing the regular season strong before recording two goals and three assists in their opening-round series while leading the team by averaging 23:43 of ice time per game. Hertl and Mantha, however, were less successful. Hertl saw action in just six games for Vegas as part of his recovery from knee surgery and then managed just one goal in the Dallas series while finishing as a minus-six. Mantha, meanwhile, proved so ineffective that he was a healthy scratch for the final four games against the Stars.
While it seems likely that Mantha will not return next season, Hertl and Hanifin remain under contract through 2030 and 2032, respectively. Golden Knights fans are surely happy to have Hanifin locked up as a long-term anchor for the club’s already-strong blue-line corps, but they are probably hoping that the Hertl set to stick around for the rest of the decade is not the same guy they just saw in the postseason.
4) Pavel Dorofeyev Offers Most Production Among Young Forwards
The accuracy of this prediction depends on how you measure productivity. In just 47 games at the NHL level, Pavel Dorofeyev exhibited his knack for scoring, potting 14 goals to lead the club’s 25-and-under contingent. It was Paul Cotter, however, who claimed a narrow, one-point edge in total points (25 to 24). The fact that Dorofeyev played in nearly 30 fewer games highlights how much more offensively efficient he was, while Cotter’s role demonstrates that the coaching staff viewed him as the more trusted youngster at this stage.
Really, though, those expecting any significant youth movement among the forward corps probably have to be a little more patient. Even with the anticipated array of injuries, Cassidy tended to lean more on his veterans up front. Sure, Dorofeyev and Cotter had their moments (even Brendan Brisson made his Golden Knights debut), but neither man got extended exposure on a scoring line, nor did they break through in a particularly meaningful way.
5) Mark Stone Plays Over 60 Games
Close, but no cigar. At the time of Mark Stone’s lacerated spleen injury incurred on February 20 against the Nashville Predators, the captain had played in all 56 games of the Golden Knights’ season and looked poised to breeze right past my projected 60-game plateau. Unfortunately, the scary injury brought a frustrating end to the regular season for the oft-injured veteran.
Admittedly, it’s hard to talk about Stone’s injury situation without acknowledging the suspicions around the league related to the 31-year-old, who—once again—endured a lengthy regular-season absence before being deemed fit to play in the postseason when salary cap rules no longer govern rosters. However, that does diminish the impact of the injury on Stone, who didn’t want to miss the final two months of the season and certainly didn’t want to suffer through a lacerated spleen.
6) Marchessault Stays, Stephenson & Martinez Depart
Obviously, we remain months away from the July 1 opening to free agency and, thus, far too early to evaluate this prediction. That said, we do know more now than we did roughly eight months ago. The main takeaway from the preseason to the present is that retaining players will be even more challenging for the Golden Knights than initially thought.
The acquisition of Hertl’s contract and the contract extension for Hanifin served to tighten what was already going to be a limited cap sheet. In fact, Vegas already has approximately $86.8 million allotted to 20 players for next season (not including the $5 million owed to injured Robin Lehner), putting them less than $1 million away from the $87.7 million cap for 2024-25. There will still be player movement coming, but the current cap situation makes it challenging to get any of the club’s eight free agents back.
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7) Golden Knights Call On Defensive Depth
This was probably a bit of a cop-out prediction on my part. To no one’s surprise, 13 players saw action on the Golden Knights blue line this past season, as Shea Theodore (35 games), Martinez (27 games), and Alex Pietrangelo (18 games) all missed significant time.
In their place, fans may have gotten a glimpse of some future staples on the Vegas back end. Hanifin arrived and will be around for the foreseeable future, but we also saw the NHL debut of Lukas Cormier and a larger role carved out by Kaedan Korczak. There were departures, too, with Daniil Miromanov heading to Calgary in the Hanifin deal and Brayden Pachal being placed on waivers, where those same Flames picked him up.
8) Jiří Patera Starts 5-10 Games
Injuries to Thompson in December and Hill in late March helped this prediction convey, as Jiří Patera ultimately started five games and saw action in six this season. Charitably, those games didn’t go well. After winning both of his 2022-23 NHL appearances, Patera went 1-3-1 this season, sporting a .893 SV% and a 3.98 GAA. It wasn’t substantially better at the AHL level, as the Czech netminder went 11-10-4 with a .903 SV% and 2.99 GAA for the Henderson Silver Knights.
Jiri Patera is now in net for the Golden Knights
— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) December 20, 2023
Patera’s struggles might spell the end of his tenure with the Golden Knights. He is a Group 6 unrestricted free agent, and uncertainty over the health of Hill and Thompson across an entire season may necessitate a veteran third-stringer rather than the 25-year-old.
9) Second Line Wing Job Remains in Flux
At the time of this prediction, Reilly Smith had signed in Pittsburgh, and Vegas had little reason to break up the top line of Jack Eichel, Marchessault, and Ivan Barbashev, who were fresh off a dominant playoff run. Given the uncertainty over the makeup of the second line, I posited that the role on the wing would continue to rotate, and no singular player would assume full control of the top-six slot.
Cassidy and the Golden Knights actually did one better, breaking up the top line at times during the season and tinkering constantly. As predicted, Brett Howden, Cotter, and Dorofeyev were among the players to see time in the top six alongside Stone and Chandler Stephenson, albeit with mostly middling results. Throughout much of their first-round series, Hertl took over on the top line for Barbashev, who moved down to the wing on the second line.
10) Vegas Falls to Oilers in Round Two
This could still be the Oilers’ season (although they have some work to do), but it won’t come at the expense of Vegas. The Golden Knights would have set up a first-round showdown with Connor McDavid and Edmonton were it not for dropping their 82nd and final game of the season to the Ducks.
It was a strange season for the Pacific rivals. The Golden Knights got off to a torrid start, while the Oilers had fans hitting the panic button early after a surprisingly haphazard early stretch. Of course, the early trends didn’t last for either team. Edmonton went 31-12-5 once the calendar switched to 2024, while Vegas sported a 23-19-3 record over that same period.
Given the unpredictability of the Golden Knights this season – even in a game-to-game context – I didn’t fare too badly. Alas, perfection will have to once again wait for another year.
