Gold prices are at an all-time high—but experts like Warren Buffett don't always recommend investing (2024)

Bitcoin and stocks aren't the only assets hitting all-time highs. If you want to buy an ounce of gold, it will currently cost you more than ever, at more than $2,250 an ounce. That puts it up about 38% from its last low point in 2022.

And even though gold prices are at an all-time high, many market watchers are still taking a shine to it. While the current economic scenario has been good for stocks, it's been "even more bullish for gold," Tim Hayes, chief global investment strategist at Ned Davis Research wrote in a recent note.

But even with a favorable outlook, gold should play a very different role in your portfolio than stocks or bonds, investing experts say.

Because it tends to move in different ways than more traditional investments, gold may be an appropriate way to diversify for some investors — but don't make it a major building block of your portfolio. Billionaire investor and Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett is known to avoid it for a reason.

Why gold is up and could continue to rise

Different investors cite different reasons for owning gold. For one, it has a reputation to maintain or increase in value during periods of inflation, though that track record is spotty. For another, it's considered a store of value should paper money become significantly devalued — after all, gold has been considered currency for millennia.

It's also generally expected to hold up in so-called "risk off" markets, when investors tend to flee from riskier fare, like stocks, into perceived safe-haven assets, including gold and bonds. That means investors tend to pick up more gold in the lead-up to and during recessions and bear markets.

That makes the recent uptrend in gold a little bit strange, says Ford O'Neill, co-portfolio manager at the Fidelity Strategic Real Return Fund, a mutual fund strategy focused on shielding investors from inflation risk.

"It's been anything but [a risk off market] since October of last year," he says. "I would argue we've had what I would call an 'everything rally,' where obviously quite a few assets have done quite well."

Essentially, he says, gold is doing well because investors are boosting the price of just about everything, from stocks to bonds to cryptocurrency.

In addition to a rising tide, a weakening U.S. dollar and falling bond rates have boosted gold prices of late, says Hayes. At lower rates, bonds and cash accounts "have less of a competitive advantage" over gold, he tells CNBC Make It.

And with the Federal Reserve projected to begin cutting interest rates this year, the outlook for gold is growing rosier. The lower interest rates go, the lower the opportunity cost for investors to hold gold, which pays no interest.

"We continue to be bullish on gold," says Hayes.

What to know before buying gold

If you want to add gold to your portfolio, the easiest way is to buy an ETF which tracks the price of the yellow stuff. Doing so allows you to track gold's performance relative to the rest of your portfolio and keeps you from having to shell out big bucks to own physical gold.

But whether you hold it in your brokerage account or stash coins and bars in your safe, gold is an asset that doesn't produce anything. That's why the world's most famous long-term investor never touches the stuff.

In his 2011 letter to shareholders, Buffett pointed out that for the price of acquiring all the world's gold, an investor could buy all of the cropland in the U.S. with enough money leftover to buy ExxonMobil 16 times over. Come back a century later, and one of those options will have delivered a bounty of crops and ample dividends. The other would still be a large quantity of gold.

Over the past 15 years, an ETF tracking the spot price of gold has returned an annualized 5.5% compared with a 15.3% return in the S&P 500.

As for inflation, gold's record is a mixed bag. Despite steady inflation since 1988, gold has submitted a negative return in 18 calendar years, including 2021 and 2022 — years with particularly high inflation.

Some investors like to hold a small allocation of gold because it provides peace of mind when other assets are in decline.

"When everything else is going down the tubes, gold is the one thing that's likely going to do well," William Bernstein, the author of "The Four Pillars of Investing," recently told CNBC. "Home insurance also has a high return when you have a fire."

But over the long term, you're better off with assets that will grow and deliver returns at a compounding rate. Take it from Buffett.

"True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production," Buffett wrote in 2011. "Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end."

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Gold prices are at an all-time high—but experts like Warren Buffett don't always recommend investing (2024)

FAQs

Gold prices are at an all-time high—but experts like Warren Buffett don't always recommend investing? ›

Because it tends to move in different ways than more traditional investments, gold may be an appropriate way to diversify for some investors — but don't make it a major building block of your portfolio. Billionaire investor and Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett is known to avoid it for a reason.

Why doesn't Warren Buffett invest in gold? ›

Buffett therefore doesn't see any utility in owning gold because it can't produce things. Stocks can grow earnings and profits and pay dividends, and farmland produces fruits and vegetables that can be used and sold, but gold just sits there, waiting for someone to come along and decide to pay more for it.

Why is gold at all time high? ›

Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. Gold is considered a resilient investment. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds.

Why should you not invest in gold? ›

There are several potential risks to investing in gold, including: Price volatility: The price of gold can be volatile, and it may fluctuate significantly over short periods of time.

Is gold a good investment in 2024? ›

In summary, gold's ability to diversify portfolios, act as a safe haven, hedge against inflation, protect during downturns, and maintain liquidity makes it a wise investment choice for 2024.

Do billionaires invest in gold? ›

Gold in Rich Investors' Portfolios

It turns out the average ultra-high net worth individual (UHNWI) with a net worth over $30 million does own a little gold. They just don't own giant vaults and swim in gold like Scrooge McDuck. The average UHNWI holds about 2% of their net worth in gold.

Is it still smart to invest in gold? ›

It can (still) diversify your portfolio

It's never a bad idea to diversify your portfolio. The start of a new year is an opportune time to do just that by investing in gold. That's because gold tends to hold its value and even increase in value when other assets look shaky (as the above 2023 price range demonstrates).

Why is China buying so much gold? ›

Beijing is buying up gold to diversify its reserve funds and reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar, long considered the most important currency to hold in reserve. China has been reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings for more than a decade.

Has gold ever lost value? ›

It's important to note that gold prices have historically been volatile and have fluctuated quite a bit over time. The price of gold, like any other commodity, is subject to the laws of supply and demand.

Is gold overpriced? ›

Recently, gold's fortunes have changed. The yellow metal has shattered its previous all-time high, soaring above $2,400 an ounce. Yet according to the Erb/Harvey model, gold is as overvalued now as it was in 2012. The model is based on the ratio of gold's price to the U.S. consumer-price index.

Is there a better investment than gold? ›

stocks: Which is the better investment? Stocks have generally performed better than gold over the years, but there can be exceptions. Looking back 20 years, for example, gold has outperformed the S&P 500.

How much gold does the average American own? ›

How much gold does the average American own? The average American household owns approximately 2.08 troy ounces of gold.

What will gold be worth in 5 years? ›

What will gold be worth in 5 years? Two Jakarta-based commodity analysts forecast that the price of gold could reach as high as $3,000 per ounce in the next five years. While they remain bullish, they cautioned that many factors could affect the price of gold within this timeframe.

Will gold be worth more in 10 years? ›

The bottom line. There's no way to know exactly how much an ounce of gold might cost 10 years from now. However, most experts predict that the price of the precious metal will be significantly higher in 2034 than it is today.

How much will an ounce of gold be worth in 2024? ›

According to the World Bank, the average price of gold in 2024 will be $2,100.00 per ounce. This forecast is based on the assumption that the conflict in the Middle East could lead to increased global uncertainty and a sharp rise in the cost of the precious metal.

What is the best form of gold to buy? ›

Although high-quality gold jewelry will always retain some value, bullion in the form of bars or coins is the best type of gold to buy as an investment. When you purchase bullion bars and coins, you get purer gold with lower premiums than jewelry.

What does Warren Buffett not invest in? ›

Warren stays away from technology companies because he likes investments in which he can predict winners a decade in advance—an almost impossible feat when it comes to technology. Unfortunately for Warren, the world of technology knows no boundaries.

Why are gold stocks declining? ›

Gold is often seen as a safe haven investment and a store of value, but as a produced commodity, it is also subject to economic forces like supply and demand. When gold miners produce an excess of gold relative to demand, the price will experience downward pressure.

Why not to invest in digital gold? ›

However, this form has its own sets of drawbacks. The trading platforms charge 2%-3% as a management fee, storage costs and insurance. Also, there is no regulatory authority for digital gold platforms to secure the interest of consumers. Moreover, digital gold investment doesn't offer passive income to its investors.

Is investing in gold a hedge against inflation? ›

Many investors consider gold to be the ultimate safe-haven hedge against inflation. It's been a store of value for thousands of years, and it has real-world uses in jewelry and electronics, which provides tangible value. And unlike fiat currencies, there is a relatively limited supply of gold.

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