Are We in a Bull Market Yet? | Morgan Stanley (2024)

Index Definitions

S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks.

Risk Considerations

Equity securities may fluctuate in response to news on companies, industries, market conditions and general economic environment.

The value of fixed income securities will fluctuate and, upon a sale, may be worth more or less than their original cost or maturity value. Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, call risk, reinvestment risk, liquidity risk, and credit risk of the issuer.

High yield bonds (bonds rated below investment grade) may have speculative characteristics and present significant risks beyond those of other securities, including greater credit risk, price volatility, and limited liquidity in the secondary market. High yield bonds should comprise only a limited portion of a balanced portfolio.

Companies paying dividends can reduce or cut payouts at any time.

Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining financial markets.

Investing in small- to medium-sized companies entails special risks, such as limited product lines, markets and financial resources, and greater volatility than securities of larger, more established companies.

Because of their narrow focus, sector investments tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies. Technology stocks may be especially volatile. Risks applicable to companies in the energy and natural resources sectors include commodity pricing risk, supply and demand risk, depletion risk and exploration risk. Health care sector stocks are subject to government regulation, as well as government approval of products and services, which can significantly impact price and availability, and which can also be significantly affected by rapid obsolescence and patent expirations.

The indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment.

The indices selected by Morgan Stanley Wealth Management to measure performance are representative of broad asset classes. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management retains the right to change representative indices at any time.

Disclosures

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is the trade name of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, a registered broker-dealer in the United States. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, its affiliates and Morgan Stanley Financial Advisors do not provide legal or tax advice. Each client should always consult his/her personal tax and/or legal advisor for information concerning his/her individual situation and to learn about any potential tax or other implications that may result from acting on a particular recommendation.

This material, or any portion thereof, may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC.

© 2024 Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, Member SIPC.

CRC#6212147 (01/2024)

Are We in a Bull Market Yet? | Morgan Stanley (2024)

FAQs

Are We in a Bull Market Yet? | Morgan Stanley? ›

Key Takeaways. Potential economic obstacles in 2024 could delay the start of a sustained bull market, but investors can still find opportunities. Consider staying cautious on U.S. stocks while shifting to bonds for potential income and capital gains.

Are we in a bull market right now? ›

The current bull market started in October 2022, which means it is now just less than 19 months old. If it ended now, it would be the shortest bull market ever. Most bull markets last much longer. The last 12 bull markets have averaged more than five years.

What is the outlook for 2024 Morgan Stanley? ›

Key Takeaways. Morgan Stanley Economists see global economic growth of 3.1% in 2024 and 2025. Global growth remains steady and inflation is slowing, despite data volatility and shifting rate expectations in the first half.

Are we in a bull or bear market in 2024? ›

Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.

How do you know if you are in a bull market? ›

No specific and universal metric identifies a bull market. Nonetheless, the most common gauge used is a 20% or more rise in stock prices from recent lows.

At what age should you get out of the stock market? ›

There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.

Will the stock market recover in 2024? ›

Will 2024 be a good year for the stock market? So far, the S&P 500 is on track for above-average gains in 2024. The index has historically followed up a solid first-half performance with additional gains in the second half.

Should I pull my money out of the stock market? ›

Unlike the rapidly dwindling balance in your brokerage account, cash will still be in your pocket or in your bank account in the morning. However, while moving to cash might feel good mentally and help you avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be a wise move over the long term.

What is the market prediction for 2024? ›

Overall, Yardeni Research forecasts S&P 500 operating earnings at $250 in 2024, up 12% vs 2023. He puts them at $270 in 2025 (up 8%) and $300 in 2026 (up 11.1%). These figures compare with analysts' consensus forecasts of $244.70 in 2024, $279.70 in 2025 and $314.80 in 2026.

How high will the S&P 500 go in 2024? ›

Heading into 2024, the average target was around 5,117 (see table below). Not every bank has yet updated its price target for the S&P 500.

How long does a bull market normally last? ›

How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.

Should you sell during a bull market? ›

In a bull market, the ideal action for an investor is to take advantage of rising prices by buying stocks early in the trend (if possible) and then selling them when they have reached their peak.

What type of market are we in? ›

Last year we entered a bear market, and although the S&P 500 is up 12% this year and has been even higher, we are still officially in a bear market. You can see from this chart when the market began to climb after crashing in 2020 and stayed elevated until last year.

How long does a bull market usually last? ›

How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.

Do you buy in a bull or bear market? ›

One way to capitalize on the rising prices of a bull market is to buy stocks early on and sell them before they reach their peak. In a bear market, where there is more loss potential, investing in equities should be done with great prudence, since you are likely to incur a loss — at least initially.

Are we in a crypto bull run? ›

Summary of Crypto Predictions

The bull run is expected to last until at least March 2026, with the total crypto market cap ranging from 8 trillion to 14 trillion dollars.

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